Africa’s New Oil Frontiers: Where Are the Next Big Discoveries?

In the heart of the 2020s, Africa is emerging as a significant player in the global oil landscape. In 2024, the continent became a critical focal point for oil exploration and discovery, with the Orange Sub-basin off Namibia and the Côte d’Ivoire Basin leading the charge. According to a recent report by S&P Global titled “High Impact Wells 2025,” Africa accounted for an astonishing 35% of all new oil discoveries this year—an increase from a mere 7% in 2023. This article delves into the implications of Africa’s oil emergence, the geographic regions contributing to this growth, and what the future holds for oil exploration in Africa.

The African Oil Boom

The statistics are compelling. In 2024, Africa was home to more than 70 basins where oil discoveries were made. Among them, three key regions were responsible for half of the total discovered resources: the Orange Sub-basin, the Central Arabian Province, and the Guyana Basin. The combined finds contributed to over 2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) added to reserves. This robust growth trajectory is expected to continue, with projections suggesting that the annual finds could approach 15.4 Bboe, far exceeding the 8.8 Bboe discovered in 2024.

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The implications of these oil finds are multifold. First and foremost is the potential for economic growth across the continent. As investment floods into Africa’s untapped oil-rich regions, countries with known or potential oil deposits are likely to experience improved energy security, infrastructure development, and job creation. The increased economic activity will also bolster local businesses and stimulate foreign direct investment.

A Turn to Frontier Basins

One of the most striking features of Africa’s oil resurgence in 2024 is the surge in exploratory activity in frontier and immature basins. Remarkably, 60% of the New Field Wildcats (NFWs) drilled in Africa were located in these under-explored areas. This demonstrates a wellspring of potential, particularly in regions traditionally overshadowed by more mature oil fields.

Spotlight on the Orange Sub-basin

The Orange Sub-basin, situated off the southwest coast of Africa, stands out as one of the most promising new exploration hot spots. The region has garnered attention not only for its scale but also for the rich resources it harbours. This vast area consists of approximately 220,000 square kilometres of offshore license acreage, yet it has remarkably seen only over 20 exploratory wells drilled—a clear indication of its under-explored status.

The Orange Sub-basin’s Promise

Developments in the Orange Sub-basin have been promising. TotalEnergies’ Venus project, located in Block 2913B, is on track for a final investment decision (FID) in 2026. Recent geological data indicate enhanced reservoir characteristics, proposing higher density and permeability than originally estimated. Meanwhile, Galp’s Mopane discovery has also shown encouraging signs, with 3,500 square kilometres of high-density seismic data recently collected to refine volume estimates and further advance the project.

Shell is also heavily invested in the Orange Sub-basin, particularly in its PEL 39 discovery. The company has recently reassessed the data from nine wells drilled thus far to determine the most effective path to development. Despite facing a write-down of $400 million, Shell remains committed to unlocking the basin’s potential.

The Côte d’Ivoire Basin: An Emerging Player

While the Orange Sub-basin captures much attention, the Côte d’Ivoire Basin is another significant area ripe for exploration and discovery. This basin has shown promising geologic features that are believed to host substantial oil reserves, underscoring its potential for becoming a new oil frontier.

Competitive Advantage in Côte d’Ivoire

Côte d’Ivoire has several positive factors contributing to its attractiveness for oil exploration. The country boasts a relatively stable political climate, supportive regulatory frameworks, and established infrastructure. Combined with the increasing number of international energy firms showing interest in the region, Côte d’Ivoire is poised for a renaissance in oil exploration, potentially matching the excitement seen in Namibia’s offshore projects.

Future Projections: What to Expect

The rise in oil finds across Africa is expected to peak further in 2025, with greater financial investments and opportunities surfacing across the continent. But what exactly can stakeholders expect as they navigate this budding landscape?

Continued Drilling and Exploration

Preliminary reports suggest that more than 35 High-Impact Wells (HIWs) are scheduled globally in 2025. Among these, significant wells are expected in both immature and frontier basins, including the Guyana Basin and, of course, the Orange Sub-basin. This sustained exploratory activity promises to validate and expand existing reserves while adding discoveries that could redefine energy markets.

Namibia’s offshore oil and gas industry is gearing up for substantial growth. The country is preparing for new licensing opportunities that are anticipated to attract foreign investment. As Petroleum Commissioner Maggy Shino announced, an open licensing regime will soon be implemented, expanding the area of available licenses to deepwater, ultra-deepwater, and shallow-water environments.

Economic and Social Impact of Oil Discoveries

As companies explore and develop oil resources, the broader implications for local economies cannot be overstated.

Energy Security and Economic Prosperity

Countries like Namibia and Côte d’Ivoire stand to gain significantly from their burgeoning oil sectors. These discoveries could enhance energy security, reducing dependency on imports while also diversifying their economies. The prospect of an oil boom translates to substantial revenues from exports, creating a basis for sustainable economic development.

Infrastructure Development

Increased oil revenues typically lead to enhanced infrastructure development, including roads, ports, and facilities necessary for oil processing and transportation. Improved infrastructure can catalyse other sectors, from agriculture to tourism, further diversifying the economic base.

Job Creation

With the expansion of the oil and gas sector comes the promise of job creation. Employment opportunities will arise not only in the energy sector but also in supporting industries such as logistics, construction, and services. This ripple effect can lead to reduced unemployment rates and improved living standards for local populations.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimistic projections, the journey toward realising Africa’s oil potential is not without challenges.

Environmental Concerns

Oil exploration and extraction come with environmental risks that cannot be ignored. Striking a balance between resource exploitation and environmental preservation is crucial for sustainable development. Policymakers must work diligently to create regulations that minimise ecological damage while fostering economic growth.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

While many African nations are seeing an influx of investment, geopolitical instability can pose risks. Issues such as armed conflict, corruption, and regulatory uncertainty can impede the growth of the oil sector and scare off foreign investment. Solutions also require robust governance frameworks that uphold the rule of law and ensure benefit-sharing among citizens.

Investment and Future Opportunities

In light of the changes happening across African oil fields, global investors are keenly eyeing the continent as a prime destination for oil exploration and investment. The African Energy Chamber emphasises the continent’s potential as a viable investment hub for the global energy market.

Investment Summits

Events such as the African Energy Week (AEW) serve as platforms for forging connections between local governments, international corporations, and investors. The 2025 edition of AEW focused on Namibia’s ongoing exploration efforts, giving stakeholders a chance to discuss potential investments and collaborative opportunities.

A Bright Horizon

As we look toward the future, Africa’s new oil frontiers hold vast promise for transforming its energy landscape. The discoveries in the Orange Sub-basin and the Côte d’Ivoire Basin are just the tip of the iceberg. With continued exploratory efforts, strategic investments, and robust governance, Africa has the potential not only to become a key player in the global oil market but also to ensure sustainable economic growth that benefits its citizens.

The time is ripe for governments, investors, and stakeholders to come together to harness these newfound resources responsibly, creating a lasting impact that transcends the present oil rush. Africa’s oil frontier is not merely a quest for wealth; it is an opportunity to build stronger, more sustainable economies that will benefit generations to come.